Lamar Jackson needs to hop on his agent concerning these contract talks. The Ravens are making their annual run to the playoffs and Jackson may have a possibility to chase down Patrick Mahomes and also Josh Allen for MVP honors, but somehow he is established to become a totally free agent. Jackson is his very own agent, of program, as well as agreement talks are stopped after the two sides failed to meet Jackson's due date for a deal before the beginning of this period. He supposedly refused a six-year, $274 million deal from the Ravens because only (yep, just) $133 million was fully guaranteed-- well short of the completely assured $230 million Deshaun Watson obtained from the Browns over 5 years. AdvertisementIt's pretty impressive that Baltimore has let this drag on this lengthy, even if it has the capacity to franchise-tag him for the following number of seasons. Speaking of champions, I am not among them for the very first time in three weeks. I was 6-8 against the spread recently many thanks to collapses by the Costs and Cowboys, and also the Jaguars not covering by half a factor. We were 2-2 on best choices, and also today we are going to again ride with the Lions as they encounter the Giants. We're likewise taking the Titans over the Packers, the Falcons over the Bears and also the Eagles over the Colts. Last week: 6-8 against the spread Raiders Salute to Service. Season record: 69-78-5 ATS (Plays of the week are 9-13-2) All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the choice was made. Visit this site for online odds. GO DEEPERNFL Power Rankings: Vikings proceed to climb, Chiefs move right into top spotTennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers (-3)|8:15 p. m. ET Thursday, Prime VideoAaron Rodgers is back, infant! And also they have a big-play receiver besides in Christian Watson. A minimum of that's the agreement after the Packers returned to defeat the Cowboys last week. Similar to most video games nowadays, it turned on one play, a fourth-and-7 pass that Rodgers appealed with the Packers down 14 points in the 4th quarter. We're not saying the win was fluky, but the Cowboys are currently 195-1 after going into the fourth quarter up 14 points. Now the Packers take on among the best groups in the league, one that can pressure Rodgers without blitzing as well as can quit the run. The Titans also have Derrick Henry and the Packers have the 30th-ranked run defense DVOA as well as have actually surrendered 38 runs of 10-plus lawns on very early downs, tracking just the Texans. Eco-friendly Bay has actually provided up 150-plus backyards on the ground a league-leading 6 times. And if this video game is closer than I believe it will be, the Titans have a league-leading 16 victories (versus 8 losses) in games chosen by three factors or fewer because 2018. When they're roadway underdogs by 3 or even more factors under Mike Vrabel, the Titans are 10-7, 12-5 against the spread (2-1 this period). The pick: Titans +3 PPP: I want there were even more offered this very early in the week, as we were 2-1 recently and would certainly have been 3-0 if Jerry Jeudy really did not obtain injured. We are taking Rodgers under 243. 5 passing yards. Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons (-3)|1 p. m. ET Sunday, FoxJustin Area is wonderful! Everybody enjoys just how much Fields is running now-- he traveled 34. 2 backyards from snap to rack up on his 1-yard TD run last week and also is getting to top rates of 20 miles per hr. And while he's very fun to watch and also is clearly enhancing on the whole, people are type of losing their minds. One nationwide pundit discussed him for MVP as well as the general public is betting on the Bears again this week.. Pssst. The Bears have actually shed three video games in a row as well as not covered in 2 of them. AdvertisementAnd a huge part of that is their defense. While both these groups go for a historical price and there will be a great deal of heap pushing-- the Bears rate 2nd amongst all teams considering that 2000 at 59. 6 percent, while the Falcons are fifth at 56. 1 percent-- the Bears' defense places last in EPA per drive (-1. 73) and also factors enabled per drive (3. 24) since Week 8. The choice: Falcons -3 Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills (-8)|1 p. m. ET Sunday, CBSFor the second time in the three weeks, the Bills were drifting and blew a very easy cover Sunday-- and this time around they shed the video game (to the Vikings). Josh Allen deserves a tip of the cap for playing hurt, yet after that you can throw the cap at him for all the stupid turnovers. No QB in the NFL has actually lost more EPA off turn overs this period than Allen (-61. 01 ). They must jump back versus the Browns, though. Cleveland not just doesn't obtain a lot of pressure on the quarterback in spite of having Myles Garrett, but it has the worst total protective hurrying EPA and protective hurrying EPA per breeze average of any type of group with its first nine video games given that at the very least 2000. It is really tough to lay 8 points with a team that hasn't covered in 3 video games and is 20th in run protection EPA, particularly when you do not know how excited the Browns have to do with their leads with Deshaun Watson ready to hit the stage. However.. Nick Chubb as well as the incoming snowstorm keep it close. The pick: Browns +8 Philadelphia Eagles at Indianapolis Colts (+6. 5)|1 p. m. ET Sunday, CBSJeff Saturday is a wizard! Colts owner Jim Irsay took a triumph lap after his buddy beat the Raiders on Sunday, as well as the general public has bought in as this line has already moved down three points. And also while Saturday appears to have actually resolved their offending line issues overnight-- the Colts balanced a season-best 4. 27 lawns prior to call per lug and permitted pressure on a season-low 13. 3 percent of dropbacks-- can we mention one small detail?AdvertisementThey beat the Raiders, a team that was somehow shut out by the Saints 3 weeks earlier and is 2-7. The Raiders defense has the fewest variety of sacks in the NFL as well as their second is defenseless. The Eagles are just one of the very best teams in the organization, as well as they're stout in the trenches with playmakers at cornerback. They wouldn't allow Matt Ryan rip off a 39-yard jog, as well as likewise will be clear-eyed and also crazy coming off their first loss. The pick: Eagles -6. 5 Life will not be so easy in Jeff Saturday's 2nd video game as Colts interim instructor. (Gary A. Vasquez/ USA Today) New York City Jets at New England Patriots (-3)|1 p. m. ET Sunday, CBSBill Belichick has not been anything special out of the bye week (11-10-1 ATS, 15-7 total), but you have to like his chances against a young quarterback that he has tortured in their three meetings. In a win over the Jets last month, the Patriots blitzed Zach Wilson on 23. 3 percent of his dropbacks, the least expensive rate he has actually seen this season, yet he was pressured 41. 9 percent of the moment, the second-highest rate of the season. Wilson has been the NFL's worst passer versus stress by EPA/DB, as well as this will be a protective fight as Mac Jones is following on the list; the Jets pressed Jones 38. 6 percent of the moment in the last match, a period high for him. The Jets and also Protective Player of the Year candidate Quinnen Williams are official, but the Patriots have actually won and also covered four of the last 5 which's great enough for us. The pick: Patriots -3 Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints (-3. 5)|1 p. m. ET Sunday, FoxNo Cooper Kupp. That's all wagerers require to hear to back the Saints, despite Rams QB Matthew Stafford expected back from a trauma. Kupp has actually made up 33. 9 percent of his group's receptions (leads the NFL) as well as 37. 8 percent of the Rams' obtaining lawns (routes just Minnesota's Justin Jefferson). Stafford may cry without Kupp. He has a 77. 4 percent completion rate targeting Kupp, with an 8. 74 YPA, 45. 2 percent initially down rate, 58. 1 percent success rate and also a 106. 6 passer ranking. Stafford's numbers targeting anyone else: 66. 5 percent completion rate, 6. 03 YPA, 30. 3 percent initially down price, 48. 6 percent success rate and a 77. 2 passer rating. The Saints can't stop the run as well as have a bunch of injuries, and also among minority things benefiting me this season is going against Saints trainer Dennis Allen whenever possible. They're 2-7-1 ATS. Allen did make a decision not to bench Andy Dalton, that rates 14th in EPA per dropback as well as 24th in QBR-- hey, by EPA/DB, it's his best year because 2018. The pick: Rams +3. 5 GO DEEPERUpdated NFL playoff image: Which groups have growing concerns entering Week 11? Detroit Lions at New York City Giants (-3)|1 p. m. ET Sunday, FoxThe Lions have won 2 straight, and simply visualize if they ever let loose D'Andre Swift again. The Giants have been a discovery this season, however their run protection can be had, so Lions instructor Dan Campbell should pound them with that huge backfield, featuring Jamaal Williams and also Swift. The Giants love to strike and Jared Goff has been solid versus extra stress. As a matter of fact, Amon-Ra St. Brown has been targeted on 40. 8 percent of his courses when the Lions are blitzed, contrasted to 28. 7 percent when not blitzed. As a matter of fact, St. Brown was a big factor the Lions defeated the Bears last week. AdvertisementAt first glance, it may resemble the ground-and-pound Giants will count once again on Saquon Barkley, who has actually uploaded a career-high eruptive run price (9. 6 percent). His 23 hurries of 10-plus lawns are 8 more than he has ever before had through the first 9 games of a period. Yet the Lions are not horrible anymore defensively after obtaining some bodies back. They are linked for 15th in success price with eight-plus in package (60 percent). The wise individuals haven't offered the Giants a great deal of regard this period, as well as they're 7-2 ATS. Yet we think they get this one right. We just want we had the Lions at +3. 5 earlier in the week. The choice: Lions +3 Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens (-13)|1 p. m. ET Sunday, FoxThe Panthers (0-4) and Raiders (0-5) are the only teams without road wins, which ought to continue this week. The Ravens, as we anticipated, have actually won three straight games, covering the last two, and also their defense is getting much healthier and nastier. And Justin Houston seems to have found the eternal youth-- his 8. 5 sacks are the 3rd most by a player via a group's first nine video games in their age-33 or older season, as well as Houston has played in just 6 games. That's a negative competition for a suspect offending line-- or is it still?-- and also Baker Mayfield, back at QB because of an injury to PJ Walker. And it does not obtain any better beyond of the ball, where the Panthers are 22nd in modified run protection EPA. Ravens RB Gus Edwards has actually returned to practice and also Kenyan Drake has actually been running excellent, on top of what Jackson brings. (And the Ravens' No. 1 passing target, limited end Mark Andrews, also returned to exercise on Wednesday. ) There is a factor Jackson is 8-2 against the spread as a double-digit favorite. The Ravens run away from groups and afterwards penalize fools like Dalton (last week) and Mayfield. The pick: Ravens -13 Washington Commanders at Houston Texans (+3)|1 p. m. ET Sunday, FoxWe leapt off the Commanders' bandwagon prematurely, as they not only covered the spread in week 10, however they beat the Eagles. And they have some aid heading. Yet if you saw the video game, ruffian QB Taylor Heinicke was intercepted simply as soon as, however was lucky not to contend the very least two more (and also that was the reason we chose the Eagles). Washington was also fortunate that A. J. Brown was injured early because game. The Leaders have to be too high coming off that win, and Texans rookie RB Dameon Pierce will certainly make them pay. He has actually accounted for 79. 7 percent of the Texans' rushes as well as 84. 3 percent of their rushing yards, both of which would certainly be highs for a newbie RB since at the very least 2000. AdvertisementTexans quarterback Davis Mills has an excellent offensive line and also is not dreadful, as well as can win this game if he does a much better work of securing the sphere than Heinicke. Washington needs to not be favored over any individual when traveling, specifically off a brief week. The pick: Texans +3 Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (-2. 5)|4:05 p. m. ET Sunday, FoxCall me a daydreamer, yet I figured Broncos coach Nathaniel Hackett as well as quarterback Russell Wilson would certainly make use of the bye week and also boost versus the Titans last week. The offending line isn't doing him any supports, but perhaps it's Wilson. He has actually lost a great deal of his off-script development capacity, based on his sack rate when pressured:2019: 22. 2 percent
2020: 20. 5 percent
2021: 21. 2 percent
2022: 28. 7 percentThe Broncos did rack up a season-high 23 factors vs. the Raiders in their very first matchup this season. The unrestrained Raiders won that game, yet that was before they lost 4 out of five games, Derek Carr wept out of stress, he and also Davante Adams claimed some teammates aren't getting in, instructor Josh McDaniels shrugged and also proprietor Mark Davis stated McDaniels is doing a "superb" job. The Broncos are 3-6 as well as have an excellent defense. The Raiders are 2-7 as well as do not. The choice: Broncos -2. 5 Mark Davis states Raiders train Josh McDaniels is doing a "fantastic" task regardless of the team's 2-7 record. (Sam Morris/ Getty Images) Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (+1. 5)|4:25 p. m. ET Sunday, CBSWe need to give Kirk Cousins some props. We called the Vikings fraudulences at 7-1, yet Relatives stood in the pocket and also made some excellent tosses under stress to help secure an improbable sway the Costs. The Cowboys defense will certainly recover as well as bring even more warmth than the Costs did, so Mr. Cousins, you're going to need to show me again. I prepared to take the Cowboys, coming off a loss with the Vikings coming off an all-time win, but there is no line worth. The 8-1 Vikings have a terrific home crowd and also must not be underdogs to an up-and-down Cowboys group, especially considering that they have actually lastly released Justin Jefferson. The third-year receiver averaged 1. 83 targets of 15-plus air yards in the initial 6 video games, but in the 4 video games given that, he has actually balanced 4. 67 targets of 15-plus air yards. And also Jefferson has captured a league-leading 76 percent of his targets of 15-plus air yards (25 such targets). This actually really feels like the annual minute where the nationwide experts all debate how good Dak Prescott really is. Provide me the hotter QB and also negative factor spread. The pick: Vikings +1. 5 Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (+4)|4:25 p. m. ET Sunday, CBST. J. Watt and also the Steelers came via for us recently against the Saints, and getting factors against a department rival without their leading receiver seems welcoming, especially when you consider trainer Mike Tomlin is 16-3-3 ATS as a home underdog, per BetLabs. But in the words of the terrific Mad Max GIF, "That's bait. " It's a trap. The Bengals are the more skilled group, and coming off the bye week offers a healthier Tee Higgins a possibility to make huge plays in Ja'Marr Chase's absence. And also, they are obtaining protective take on D. J. Viewers back. That's a huge offer against a Steelers group with a newbie quarterback in Kenny Pickett as well as a having a hard time running video game, also if its O-line seems like it is making strides. With Reader vs. the run this season, the Bengals have a 74. 4 percent success rate, with 1. 34 backyards allowed prior to call per bring. Without Reader, it was to a 55. 8 percent success price, with 1. 89 yards permitted before call per bring. That distinction in success prices amounts the difference between the No. 1 run protection and also the No. 27 run defense. The pick: Bengals -4 Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers (+6)|8:20 p. m. ET Sunday, NBCThe teams' initial match was a toss-up, however the Chargers will not have Joey Bosa this moment. Their entire protective line is abused, as well as not just will they have a bumpy ride getting stress on Patrick Mahomes-- they have the NFL's third-worst third-and-long protection, giving up conversions 35. 4 percent of the time when encountering third-and-7 or even more-- but they likewise might have trouble reducing running back Isiah Pacheco if instructor Andy Reid desires to go that route. Reid might do that if JuJu Smith-Schuster is out due to a concussion, as Smith-Schuster has actually been the Chiefs' leading target on third-and-5 or longer (20. 4 percent target share). The Chiefs will most definitely have risin